Much Ado About Nothing - Cyprus Talks (Jan 2010)

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon

Much Ado About Nothing – Cyprus Talks (Jan 2010)

It was very difficult to keep a straight face when Alexander Downer, UN’s special advisor on Cyprus, said on Thursday that there was progress in the Cyprus Talks but he wasn’t going to give details and that we should wait until Friday to find out. Then on Friday he said the same but this time we would have to wait until Monday when UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon arrives. The briefings given by the Two Presidents seemed to indicate that this progress was something to do with governance and nothing else.

President Christofias might have a cunning plan and that is to wait until Derviş Eroğlu becomes President of the TRNC and then wait for him to either walk out of the talks or ask for something that forces Christofias to abandon them. Cunning eh? I think he stole that plan from Talat. Christofias then believes that with failed talks the EU will not let Turkey join them and that heartbroken they will cave in and withdraw troops, open ports…

Well that’s not the way I see it. Yes, the talks will fail because as usual Greek and Turkish Cypriots disagree how to run their country. Turkey will point to this as not being their fault and will remind the international community that the two sides have been at one another’s throats for half a century at least. The only thing stopping radicals on both sides from killing each other, they’ll say, is the Green Line and the presence of UN and Turkish troops. Turkey will then say that they have decided to leave things as they are until this deadlock is overcome. In other words for ever.

The EU, in some ways, have one of two decisions to make; Turkey in or out on it’s own merits or out because of the Cyprus Problem. I believe the former will be its chosen option. Meanwhile, Turkey too has options and some of them do not include the EU. It’s a bit like a huge game of poker in which the GCs are standing behind the EU telling them that they should make a big bet and get Turkey to bet the TRNC in a loser takes all game. The two big players turn to the GCs, laugh and carry on with the game, neither willing to do more than make small losses and gains. Only when the EU and Turkey finally leave the table will we know what the outcome, and what Cyprus’ fate will be.

Meanwhile sit back and wait for Monday’s Much Ado About Nothing

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3 comments to Much Ado About Nothing – Cyprus Talks (Jan 2010)

  • fluter

    Apart from Turkey and the lefties at Strasbourg, backed by the dreadful Merkel, is there really anyone who wants to admit Turkey to the EU?

    The thought horrifies me.

  • Miltiades

    With the recent huge influx of muslims into Europe, I doubt very much whether Turkey is seen as a perfect candidate with some 80 plus millions of muslims.

  • European politicians have so far failed to realise that the Refugee situation is only just starting. The Million plus that arrived last year are a drop in the ocean, when we consider the (at least) four hundred million that will be on their way here during the next eighty years. My generation will not be around but the Europe (including Cyprus) of our children and grandchildren will be unrecognisable from the present one. Matters like the reunification (or not) of Cyprus will be dwarfed by the movement of populations.