Nato bombs to protect innocent civilians – time for TRNC to take stock?

German Tornado Formation Flight 2003The unrest throughout the Middle East is hitting the headlines on a daily if not hourly basis. From one “hotspot” to the next, the flashover seems uncontainable. The spread of the protesters’ zeal has, I’m glad to say, not completely swamped the tiny Republic of North Cyprus. Although many might believe that there were grounds enough for such extreme action to happen. The outright fraud, the seemingly biased use of the police force to support the power behind the throne, the violence towards people who came in good faith are just a few of the things that spring to mind.   The common denominators in revolutions, if there are any, appear not to hold true for the mini state (like, unfortunately, so many things here that don’t hold true).

If we look at the past revolutions and what triggered them, I wonder how close TRNC is to that brink, that explosive (or is it implosive?) event that will cause the structure to sag and crumble?

Revolutions: Iran to Libya, Syria, Yemen and………

  • Iran: Jan 1978 – Apr 1979     Started by a cinema blaze reportedly started by the Savak secret police.
  • East Germany: Sept – Nov 1989 Started by the brutality of the Stasi Secret Police
  • Russia: 19-21 Aug 1991 Started by the oppression support in the main by violent action by the Secret Police
  • Indonesia: 12-21 May 1998 repression and violence against protesters by the Secret Police and Army
  • Serbia: Sep – Oct 2000 Ditto
  • Georgia: 2-23 Nov 2003 Ditto
  • Ukraine: Nov – Dec 2004 Ditto
  • Tunisia: 17 Dec 2010 – 14 Jan 2011 Ditto
  • Egypt: 25 Jan – 11 Feb 2011 Ditto
  • Libya Feb 2011 ongoing Ditto
  • Syria March 2011 ongoing Ditto
  • Yemen March 2011 ongoing Ditto
  • TRNC?????????????

It doesn’t appear to be the incumbent dictator’s ease to kill, imprison, maim, disable, disfranchise or dispossess with impunity that causes the “worm to turn”. It is not just poverty and poor education amongst the masses. It would appear that Trotsky was right. Trotsky once remarked that if poverty was the cause of revolutions, there would be revolutions all the time because most people in the world were poor. What is needed to turn a million people’s grumbling discontent into a crowd on the streets is a spark to electrify them. It is in my opinion where the poverty is perceived.

What makes a regime collapse is not only external pressure. External pressure plays an important role in completing regime-change. As seen in 1989, with the refusal of the Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, to use the Red Army to back East European Communists facing protests in the streets made the local generals realise that force was not an option, but it isn’t everything.  It is only when the insiders turn against it. So long as police, army and senior officials believe they have more to lose by supporting change than defending a regime, can all protests be denied any chance of success. When they think they can achieve more than they have, the game looks entirely different; especially when it may mean getting more than the old rivals.

So where is the spark in TRNC? Are there enough poor? Are there enough people who despite support for the system, are actually losing out financially in relation to the people they are supporting? Are they getting (subjectively) a fair slice of the cake?

While they are all at the trough and getting their fill, there is little chance of the “starving peasantry” getting anything other than a good drubbing for its efforts.

What if Turkey says, “Enough is enough.” No more military backing “a la Gobatschov”? What if Bank A reckon’s Bank B is getting too fat, too fast and it is missing out on some of the scams? Bank B is more “in” with the senior figures in government, although they are “bunging” the same bundle of notes to the same pockets and yet feel they are not treated equally. Discontent starts and eats, like acid, through the bonds formed over years. Distrust replaces mutual greed and the system starts to crumble from within. The hope for Bank A is, that Bank B will be ruined and Bank A gets the pickings. History is not really like that though. It always turns out differently to what you expect.

If the logic is correct, it won’t be long before Nato comes to bomb North Cyprus to protect innocent civilians from being harmed by a regime that doesn’t care about the welfare of its people? People who came here, who purchased in good faith, who came in friendship, who pay their taxes, drive carefully and have had their rights dishonored and brutally abused.

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