It Has Been Predicted That The Pound Will Drop to 3.50TL

It Has Been Predicted That The Pound Will Drop to 3.50TLJust before Christmas you could get just over 4.50TL to the Pound Sterling but since then UK uncertainty over EU membership has caused it to tumble. At its lowest this year you could only get 4.08TL, a 10% drop in value. This was when Boris Johnson decided that UK should leave the EU and this was expected to tip the undecided camp into acceptance of his view. The market responded to the PM in waiting’s revelation by doing what it would do if UK left the EU, it dumped the pound. On top of this was PM Cameron’s EU deal that wasn’t and the Tory MP rush to join the Leave camp.

A look at what the bookies think reveals that you could get 2-1 odds if you bet on the UK leaving, in other words the bookies think it slightly unlikely.

Two Polls recently revealed differing views on voter intentions, YouGov for the Times showed a split with REMAIN 37% and LEAVE 38% and ComRes for the Mail showed REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 39%; hardly conclusive.

So what will the future of the pound be, and consequently how far will the value of an expat pension drop? HSBC and Goldman Sachs have both predicted big falls for the pound, by as much as 20%, so could 3.50TL to the pound return in the near future?

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6 comments to It Has Been Predicted That The Pound Will Drop to 3.50TL

  • fluter

    Uncertainty over EU membership has nothing to do with it. I watch the Pound/Euro situation every day and this decline has been going on for some time.

    This is not the first time this has happened and is the result of deliberate “manipulation” by a committee in the Treasury, as decided by the Government in an effort to frighten those who wish to leave the EU.

    Watch out for other “frighteners” in the coming months. There will be loads of them!

  • Dominic Freeman

    Fluter, I beg to differ. Leaving the EU is an unknown and the market, particularly with the economy so weak, does not like uncertainty.

  • fluter

    Please feel free to disagree Dom, but I will guarantee that is what is happening.

  • Dominic Freeman

    Fluter, you’re talking like a politician or financial product salesperson. You cannot guarantee anything, you are merely trying to add force to your unsubstantiated argument in order to protect your beliefs. I respect your beliefs but cannot use them when I make decisions, eg whether to vote in or out of the EU. I’d be happy to read any evidence you have to support your opinion or you could ask me to supply evidence and I’d say that there isn’t any, it’s not available.

  • fluter

    Dom, you your ideas and I have mine. One thing I will never do is talk like a politician.

    There is going to be plenty more silly Government (or maybe Cameron?) inspired nonsense in the time between now and the referendum.

    And I wonder exactly what question we shall be asked to answer? Will it be as simple as something like “Do you want the UK to remain in/leave the EU?”. I would like to think so.

  • Polly Marples

    On the one hand we are told it is unlikely the vote will be for leaving the EU. On the other we are told the value of the pound will drop if we do and the uncertainty is causing the problem now. Why the uncertainty if they are certain we won’t leave the EU.

    The reality is, no one knows, we are all guessing, so my guess is…we will vote to leave the EU and that the pound will drop in the short term whilst the dust settles.

    The scare tactics at the moment from the IN brigade are farcical, because just like all of us they do not really know what the effect of leaving will be.